At the Group of Seven summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, on June 17, Kenyan President William Ruto said Kenya was nearing a critical minerals agreement with the United States. He said Kenya wanted its rare earths, lithium, graphite, copper, nickel, and niobium to be refined and processed domestically rather than exported as raw materials.
Similar policies are emerging elsewhere in Africa. Namibia has barred exports of unprocessed lithium, cobalt, manganese, graphite, and rare earths. Mali is building a 200-tonne-a-year gold refinery and requiring more local refining. Ghana will begin buying 30% of large-scale gold output from July 2026 to support local refining and reserves.
The shift comes as demand for critical minerals rises. Lithium consumption increased by nearly 30% in 2024, driven by investment in electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. The International Energy Agency said lithium use could increase fivefold by 2040, while demand for graphite and nickel could roughly double.
According to the agency, new mines often take more than a decade to reach production, and announced projects under its Stated Policies Scenario would leave lithium supply 40% short of projected demand by 2035. That has given countries with existing deposits more leverage to seek local processing, technology transfer, and industrial investment.
United Nations data showed the value added along the battery supply chain in 2022: lithium ore and brine exports were worth about $20 billion, battery materials $51 billion, cell components and battery packs $106 billion, and electric vehicles $135 billion.
There are already several examples of countries pushing domestic production. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in the Lekki Free Zone outside Lagos produces 650,000 barrels a day and began production in early 2024. Between February and March 2026, Nigeria’s clean petroleum exports rose from about 100,000 barrels a day to 214,000 barrels, while the refinery supplied much of the domestic market and exported fuel to Ghana, Cameroon, Togo, Burkina Faso, and Ivory Coast.
In 2020, Indonesia banned unprocessed nickel ore exports. The value of Indonesia’s nickel product exports rose from less than $1 billion in 2015 to nearly $20 billion in 2022, alongside investment in smelters, refineries, battery materials, and electric vehicle manufacturing, though the expansion also raised environmental and labor concerns.