China has imposed new export controls on Japan, escalating trade tensions amid a broader diplomatic dispute involving Taiwan and the United States.
Beijing this week banned exports of all dual-use goods deemed suitable for military use, potentially affecting around 40% of Chinese exports to Japan. It also initiated an anti-dumping investigation into a chipmaking material critical to Japanese industry. Both actions follow remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan could deploy its military if China attempts to seize Taiwan.
The restrictions signal mounting pressure from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has demanded that Takaichi retract her comments. Takaichi has stood by her statement and has not announced retaliatory trade measures.
“Japan’s default approach to China’s policy tantrum is to avoid seeking a compromise off-ramp, but also to avoid any leaps toward retaliation,” said Kurt Tong, a former U.S. diplomat and managing partner at the Asia Group.
Takaichi’s administration has condemned the Chinese actions but has avoided escalation, in part due to Japanese dependence on Chinese components for electric vehicles. She recently spoke with President Donald Trump in what she described as an “extremely meaningful” call and plans to visit the United States later this year.
After the export measures were announced, Japanese and American officials held talks to reaffirm coordination, according to Japan’s Foreign Ministry. Details were not disclosed.
Daisuke Kawai, director of the economic security and policy innovation program at the University of Tokyo, said Takaichi would benefit from a stronger public message of support from the Trump administration.
China’s recent moves also appeared timed to contrast with improving diplomatic ties with South Korea. Just hours before Beijing’s announcements, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Xi during a state visit to China—the first by a South Korean leader since 2019. During his visit, Lee emphasized maintaining balanced relations with both Japan and China.
The current trajectory leaves Japan without an immediate diplomatic channel with China, as the next scheduled meeting between Xi and Takaichi is not until the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen this November.
“Traditionally, Japan’s diplomacy has followed a clear pattern: First you lock in the relationship with the U.S., and then face China,” said Ryo Sahashi, professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo. “U.S.–China relations are relatively good, so Japan can’t use its old trick of negotiating with China via the U.S. anymore.”
Japan holds leverage in advanced chipmaking technology, particularly high-end photoresists used in semiconductor manufacturing. Cutting off exports of those materials could significantly impact China’s chip sector, though the overall effectiveness may be limited.
“My overall sense is that whatever could be choked off has already been choked off,” said Tilly Zhang, a China analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. She added that Japanese companies selling mid-tier equipment to China could suffer from countermeasures.
China’s trade actions have left room for ambiguity. Analysts note the vague language in the new restrictions allows Beijing discretion in enforcement.
“This is serious, but so far strikes me as a further warning shot, not a death blow,” said Cory Combs, associate director at consultancy Trivium China.
Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai, said stronger steps may follow: “We should restrict and suppress Japan’s military capabilities and defense industry, so as to deprive it of the ability to intervene on Taiwan.”
