China trade surplus nears $1.2T in 2025 amid tariff shifts

Summary

China's trade surplus rose to $1.19 trillion in 2025 as exporters shifted away from the U.S. and expanded into new global markets.

Why this matters

China’s record trade surplus highlights shifting global trade dynamics as exporters adjust to tariffs and geopolitical pressures, particularly with the U.S.

China’s trade surplus rose to $1.19 trillion in 2025, reaching a record high despite ongoing tariffs from the United States, according to customs data released Wednesday.

Exports increased 5.5% last year to $3.77 trillion, while imports held steady at $2.58 trillion. The surplus was up from $992 billion in 2024.

Chinese exporters expanded into markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe as trade with the U.S. declined amid continued tariff tensions.

Trade with Russia fell for the first time in five years, following reduced demand for Chinese cars and a lower value of Chinese imports of Russian crude oil. China remains a key trading partner for Russia, which faces ongoing U.S. and European sanctions linked to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Wang Jun, a vice minister at the General Administration of Customs, said at a news briefing that global trade conditions remained “severe and complex.” However, he added that diversifying trade partners had strengthened China’s resilience.

Analysts said demand for semiconductors and related components supported export growth. In December alone, exports rose 6.6% year-on-year in dollar terms, up from a 5.9% increase the previous month. Imports in December grew 5.7%, compared to a 1.9% rise in November.

The trade gap surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in November, when the surplus reached $1.08 trillion over 11 months.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said the record surplus could help China meet its economic growth target of around 5% when gross domestic product data is released next week.

Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said exports were expected to remain a key growth driver in 2026 despite continued trade and geopolitical pressures.

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