DOJ probes George Santos over reported trading bets

Summary

Federal authorities are reportedly investigating George Santos after Kalshi flagged trades tied to Trump's February State of the Union.

Why this matters

The case could test how federal authorities police potential misconduct in event-based prediction markets. It also renews scrutiny of Santos months after Trump commuted his prison sentence.

The Department of Justice has reportedly opened a new investigation into former U.S. Rep. George Santos after online prediction market Kalshi detected what it viewed as suspicious trades.

The reported trades involved President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February. On Feb. 23, the day before his social media message, Santos said in a video posted to X, “I’m going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery, guys.”

Traders on Kalshi placed millions of dollars in bets on who would attend the speech. Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at nearly 75% on the evening before the address.

Minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he was stuck at the airport and would not attend. NPR, citing three people with direct knowledge of the trades who were not authorized to speak publicly, reported that Santos had already bet that he would not appear. NPR said Kalshi then froze his account and referred the matter to federal regulators and prosecutors.

Santos was sworn into the House in January 2023 and was expelled in December after a House Ethics Committee investigation and a federal indictment. In August 2024, he pleaded guilty to aggravated identity theft and wire fraud. He was convicted on 23 counts and, the following April, was sentenced to 87 months in prison.

He began serving that sentence in July 2025. Trump commuted his sentence in October, three months into his term, and also canceled unpaid fines and restitution.

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