Odds rise for possible super El Niño in 2026

May 15, 2026

Summary

Federal forecasters raised the odds of El Niño in 2026, including a 37% chance of a very strong event by winter.

Why this matters

El Niño can shift temperatures, rainfall, and hurricane activity across the United States and beyond. Updated forecasts can help governments, businesses, and residents prepare for possible winter and storm-season impacts.

A rare, very strong El Niño may be more likely in late 2026, according to a National Weather Service forecast released Thursday.

The agency said there is an 82% chance El Niño will develop by July, up from 61% in the previous outlook, and a 96% chance it will last through winter. It said the chance of a “super El Niño” between November 2026 and January 2027 rose to 37% from 25% last month. The odds of a strong El Niño overall are about two in three.

El Niño is a natural climate cycle in which weaker-than-normal Pacific trade winds allow warm water to shift toward the Americas. That warmer water can push the Pacific jet stream south, changing weather patterns in the United States and elsewhere. La Niña is the opposite, with stronger trade winds, cooler water, and a more northward jet stream.

El Niño and La Niña typically occur every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months. Meteorologists classify El Niño by how much sea-surface temperatures rise in part of the equatorial Pacific. The threshold for a weak El Niño is 0.5 degrees Celsius. To qualify as a “super” or “very strong” El Niño, temperatures would need to rise by 2 degrees Celsius.

A super El Niño has occurred only four times since 1950: 2015-16, 1997-98, 1982-83, and 1972-73, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Its effects vary. NOAA said Monday that 2026 is “very likely” to be one of the five hottest years on record, even without accounting for El Niño. A strong event can also suppress hurricanes in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic while increasing activity in the central and eastern Pacific. Winter often trends warmer in northern North America and cooler and wetter across the southern half, especially the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

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“Louisiana’s efforts have been thwarted by certain medical providers, private organizations and states that abhor laws like Louisiana’s and seek to undermine their enforcement,” Alito wrote.

Thomas wrote that the drugmakers “are not entitled to a stay of an adverse court order based on lost profits from their criminal enterprise. They cannot, in any legally relevant sense, be irreparably harmed by a court order that makes it more difficult for them to commit crimes.”

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