A new paper by Middlebury College economist Caitlin Myers argued that Apple’s 2007 iPhone debut accounted for 33% to 52% of the decline in the U.S. fertility rate.
Myers said the device may have reduced in-person interaction and made it easier to access pornography and information on contraception, factors she said weighed on birth rates.
“What we are seeing is that the places that have the iPhone have big fertility changes relative to the other places,” Myers told CBS News.
The study used a natural experiment created by the iPhone’s exclusive availability on AT&T from 2007 through 2011. Myers compared birth rates in U.S. counties with broad AT&T coverage, and therefore early iPhone access, with counties that had limited access.
She said she tested whether the results instead reflected the 2008 financial crisis hitting AT&T-covered areas, which were concentrated in cities, harder than other places. After controlling for economic and demographic factors, she said the iPhone effect remained.
“I said, ‘Wow, but this has to be too big,’” Myers recalled. “I was like, ‘Let me try everything I can to explain away what I’m seeing in the data,’ and I just couldn’t.”
She added, “I’m not surprised that there is an effect. I am surprised that it stands out so, so clearly.”
Myers said the research explained only part of a broader trend. Economists have also cited child care costs, delayed parenthood, and decisions not to have children.
“We’re not saying it’s all the iPhone. What we are saying is that it is a really important factor to consider,” she said. “Over this short period of time, it could explain about a third to a half of the decline. Now that leaves about half to two-thirds unexplained.”
The Trump administration has encouraged Americans to have more children and discussed ideas including a “baby bonus” for new parents. It also introduced a tax-deferred investment account for U.S. children, with federal contributions of up to $1,000 for eligible children.
Myers said falling birth rates were unlikely to be reversed through tax incentives alone. On Tuesday, the Social Security Administration said its trust fund could be exhausted as soon as 2032, with declining birth rates among the factors contributing to the projected shortfall.
