Study: San Andreas stress reached 1,000-year high

June 28, 2026

1–2 minutes

Summary

A University of Hawaii study found stress on the San Andreas system is at a 1,000-year high, but it did not predict when an earthquake will occur.

Why this matters

The study adds detail to earthquake hazard assessments in Southern California and may help inform infrastructure planning and emergency preparedness. It also outlines how a rupture could spread across multiple fault systems, affecting a wider region.

Stress across the San Andreas Fault system has reached its highest level in 1,000 years, according to new research from the University of Hawaii.

The study examined a geologic record of earthquake activity over the past millennium to assess stress on the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems. Using a physics-based computer model, researchers found that stress that would normally be released in large earthquakes has continued to accumulate.

Lead author Liliane Burkhard said the findings suggest the region could be capable of a rupture involving both fault systems. “Our results show that stress levels on multiple fault segments are now at or above the highest values seen in the past millennium and that the region may be capable of a large through-going rupture involving both fault systems,” said Burkhard, a research affiliate at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and a scientist at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

The study focused in part on Cajon Pass, between the San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountains in Southern California. Burkhard said it may act as an “earthquake gate,” sometimes blocking ruptures from crossing between faults and sometimes allowing them to spread through both systems in a single event.

Researchers said joint ruptures appear more likely when stress levels on both faults are similar. The University of Hawaii said such an event could affect densely populated areas including Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside and the Coachella Valley.

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Asia

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China imposed new export controls Monday on 40 Japanese entities, saying they were contributing to Japan’s “remilitarization,” as tensions between Beijing and Tokyo continued to rise.

China’s Commerce Ministry said 20 entities, including Mitsui E&S, which makes ship engines and other equipment, were added to a watch list for dual-use items, which can be used for civilian or military purposes.

Chinese exporters to those firms must apply for special licenses, submit risk assessment reports on the Japanese companies, and provide written pledges that the items will not be used for military purposes.

The ministry also said 20 other Japanese entities that had been placed on a watch list in February were moved to a control list. That bars Chinese and foreign exporters from selling them dual-use items made in China. The companies include multiple divisions of Mitsubishi Corporation.

“China’s measures are entirely justified, reasonable and lawful. They are aimed at firmly deterring Japan’s reckless pursuit of ‘new militarism,’” the Commerce Ministry said.

“We hope Japan will recognize its mistakes, reverse its wrongful course, genuinely reflect on its past and return to the right track,” it added.

Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have strained since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last year suggested Japan could intervene if China used military force against Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy that Beijing claims as its own.

Japan has also moved to strengthen its military capabilities, including by deploying longer-range missiles on remote islands and allowing lethal weapons exports under a new policy. Japan plans to revise its defense and security documents by December, which could further increase its defense budget.

On Monday, Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force said it deployed a Type-12 missile launcher on the remote southern island of Minamitorishima, which appeared to be a response to China’s expanding activity in the Pacific.

Earlier this month, the Chinese Coast Guard conducted patrols east of Taiwan in what state media described as a “pointed warning” to Japan and the Philippines after the two countries said they would discuss their maritime boundaries in waters Beijing also claims.
World

Iran president says $6B in Qatar funds to be freed

Talks between the U.S., Iran on the interim deal would resume Tuesday. The Trump administration said Sunday that nothing had been canceled and that technical talks remained on track.

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Iran’s president said Monday that $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets held in Qatar would be released, as attacks in the Persian Gulf raised new questions about ongoing talks with the United States.

President Masoud Pezeshkian made the remarks in comments published by the state-run IRNA news agency, calling the interim deal “a great victory for the Iranian people.”

“Based on the plans made, $6 billion out of the total $12 billion of Iranian resources in Qatar will be released and returned to the country, and necessary follow-ups are being carried out,” he said. He did not elaborate.

Pezeshkian, a reformist within Iran’s theocracy, is the highest-ranking Iranian official to publicly refer to the release of the funds. U.S. officials have said no frozen Iranian assets have been released. Qatar, which has served as a mediator along with Pakistan, also has not acknowledged any transfer.

The comments came after attacks across the Persian Gulf over the weekend complicated diplomacy. In recent days, Iran twice attacked vessels traveling on a route near Oman’s side of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting retaliatory U.S. airstrikes and concerns that efforts to formally end the war could be disrupted. Iran also launched drone and missile attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait on Sunday.
Asia

Pakistan strikes in Afghanistan kill 36, officials say

The operation followed a militant attack on the regional headquarters of the paramilitary Rangers in Karachi that killed three soldiers. Security forces killed three attackers and arrested an Afghan national.

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Pakistani ground operations and strikes overnight killed at least 36 civilians and injured more than 160 others in Afghanistan, Afghan officials said Monday, as tensions between the neighbors escalated.

Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Pakistani security forces carried out a ground operation along the border late Sunday, followed by strikes on militant hideouts and safe havens, killing 29 fighters. He said the operation was launched after multiple militant attacks in Pakistan.

Afghanistan condemned the strikes. Hayatullah Mohajer Farahi, deputy minister for publications at the Ministry of Information and Culture, said Afghanistan would respond “in due time.”

“The military regime in a cowardly manner bombed Paktia, Paktika, and Kunar provinces last night,” Farahi said. “This will definitely be retaliated against in due time. The decisions of the regime are not made based on emotions, but rather serious measures are taken at the right time.”

Hamdullah Fitrat, deputy spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Taliban government, said Pakistani forces struck a home in Paktia’s Chamkani district, killing an elderly man and a child and injuring other family members. He said that when residents gathered to rescue people, the area was struck again, killing 28 villagers and wounding 158.

Fitrat said six people, mostly women and children, were killed in a village in Giyan district, Paktika province, when another home was hit. A civilian home in Kunar province was also struck, he said, with no casualties reported but about 30 livestock killed.

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India denied any involvement after Pakistan accused Indian-backed militants.

The strikes came less than three weeks after Pakistan said it carried out airstrikes on militant hideouts in Afghanistan. Hundreds of people have been killed in cross-border fighting since February, and efforts including talks hosted by China have failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.
Europe

Ukraine drones hit refinery, Putin cites hard period

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it shot down 213 Ukrainian drones overnight over Russia, occupied Crimea, and the Black and Azov seas. Ukraine’s air force said Russia attacked with 142 drones and eight missiles, and that 125 drones and seven missiles were downed.

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Ukraine continued a large drone attack on Russia overnight, setting fire to an oil refinery in the south and killing at least two people, Russian authorities said Sunday, as President Vladimir Putin said the country was going through a “difficult period.”

Ukraine has increased long-range strikes on Russian military industry and energy facilities in recent months. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram that two refineries were hit.

“Our ‘long-range sanctions’ reached two oil refineries in Russia,” Zelensky wrote Sunday. “Each (strike) means a reduction in the resources that fuel the Russian war machine, and another step toward peace.”

Debris from downed Ukrainian drones caused a fire at the refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani in Russia’s Krasnodar region, east of occupied Crimea, according to Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev. Local authorities said one person was killed in Sloviansk and another was wounded in a nearby village.

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“Naturally, we are adjusting certain plans in light of the current situation, but all strategically important (domestic) development programs will undoubtedly be implemented in full,” Putin said.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia was reviewing fuel export agreements to protect domestic supply. In Siberia’s Irkutsk region, Gov. Igor Kobzev said drivers would be limited to 50 liters (13 gallons) of fuel per vehicle per day at state-run Rosneft stations.

In other attacks Sunday, a Russian aerial bomb killed two people and injured 16 others, including two children, in Zaporizhzhia, according to regional administration head Ivan Fedorov. In Russia’s Belgorod region, Ukrainian drone strikes killed one person and injured another, acting Gov. Alexander Shuvayev said.
Europe

11 dead after skydiving plane crash in France

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Eleven people died after a plane carrying a skydiving group crashed Sunday in Tomblaine, northeastern France, local authorities said.

The aircraft went down at about 11 a.m. local time in a grassy area near the runway at the Nancy-Essey aerodrome, according to Yves Seguy, prefect of the Meurthe-et-Moselle region, and Agence France-Presse.

Seguy told reporters near the scene that emergency services responded immediately and that authorities were gathering witness statements.

Tomblaine Mayor Hervé Féron told BFMTV that no homes were hit. “There was no collateral damage, but unfortunately all the people who were inside died,” he said.
Tech & Artificial Intelligence

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President Donald Trump said Sunday that work will begin Sept. 1 on East Potomac Golf Course, despite a federal judge’s warning that the administration must first obtain approvals and notify the court before starting major renovations.

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Military & National Security

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The Navy said it was withholding the Marine’s identity until 24 hours after next of kin are notified.

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A U.S. Marine assigned to the USS Anchorage went missing during a training exercise off the Southern California coast, and the Navy said the effort had shifted to a recovery operation.

The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group began the search at about 1:21 a.m. Thursday after the Marine was reported missing during integrated training with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, according to the Navy.

The search-and-rescue effort transitioned to a search-and-recovery operation at about 9 p.m. Friday, the Navy said.

According to the Navy, the search covered about 2,400 square miles over 43 hours and involved three surface ships and 12 aircraft from the Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, and Air Force.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the family and all who are affected during this difficult time,” the Navy said in a news release Saturday.

The USS Anchorage is an amphibious transport dock assigned to the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group.
US

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Three firefighters died and two were injured while responding to fires on the Colorado-Utah border, the U.S. Wildland Fire Service said Sunday.

The agency, which was created earlier this year to coordinate firefighting and fire reduction across public lands, said the firefighters were part of an interagency response to the Knowles and Gore fires on Saturday.

“The U. S. Wildland Fire Service stands united with the USDA Forest Service in grief and in our unwavering support for the loved ones left behind. Their bravery, dedication, and sacrifice will never be forgotten,” the agency said in a Facebook statement.

The largest blaze, the Cottonwood Fire in southwest Utah, grew Saturday to more than 144 square miles (373 square kilometers) in rugged terrain. It damaged part of a ski resort and summer cabins, but authorities in Beaver County said they were still assessing the extent of the damage.

Gov. Spencer Cox said in a social media post that the situation was bleak, while thanking crews for what he called “several miraculous stops and saves.”

Alyssa Mason, a spokesperson assigned to the fire, said cliffs and steep slopes had slowed the response.

Forecasters said low humidity, warm temperatures, and gusty winds created critical fire weather. Officials said conditions were worsened by Utah’s record-low snowpack and warmest winter on record.

Across the country, nearly 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) had burned since the start of the year, more than the 10-year average, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

In Arizona, officials said a wildfire south of Grand Canyon National Park was moving away from Grand Canyon Village and Tusayan, but another fire near Kendrick Mountain prompted evacuation orders. Utilities also shut off power in parts of northern Arizona and in Utah’s Beaver County to reduce wildfire risk.
US Politics

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New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said Sunday he did not support changing the Constitution’s requirement that presidents be natural-born U.S. citizens.

Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who was born in Uganda, made the comment during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week.” Host Jonathan Karl noted that Mamdani would soon meet the Constitution’s age requirement to run for president, but would remain ineligible because of his birthplace.

Asked whether the requirement should change, Mamdani laughed and said, “I think the Constitution looks good the way it is.”

Mamdani’s national profile has grown after three House candidates he backed won elections over two incumbents and another candidate backed by the party establishment. Two of those candidates were also democratic socialists.

Mamdani has focused his policies on economic issues. He also supports the Palestinian cause and has criticized Israel, as did the three candidates who won Tuesday.

He said some socialist ideals could help revive the Democratic Party after its 2024 losses.

“I think what the Democratic party can win on nationally is a focus on working people, and I think that what I saw from Darializa when I would walk the streets of her district was a focus on what she describes as the politics of life. She would talk about how we have to invest in babies, not bombs,” he said, referring to the congressional campaign of democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier.

On Tuesday, Avila Chevalier defeated incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., in the Democratic primary.

“She’s now going to represent what is one of the poorest districts in the United States of America, and what people in that district are exhausted by is a politics that has justified the spending of tens of billions of dollars in killing civilians overseas, while working people are struggling just to do the basics,” Mamdani said on ABC.

President Trump and other lawmakers have criticized Mamdani’s socialist policies by linking them to communism. “The Communists are finally making their move. I’ve been waiting and preparing for this for a long time,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday.

“It’s easy to be a Communist — All you have to do is say, ‘I’ll give you everything,’ but that means you’re taking it away from others that have earned it,” Trump added. “Over thousands of years, that Ideology has not worked once. The game is on. Enjoy watching!”