Hawaiʻi Needs 60,000 More Homes by 2050, Report Says

Summary

A new AARP Hawaiʻi report said the state will need nearly 60,000 more housing units by 2050, with most demand tied to older residents.

Why this matters

The report links housing supply to Hawaiʻi’s aging population, workforce capacity, and access to care. It also points to where future housing demand is expected to be greatest, which could inform policy and planning decisions.

Hawaiʻi will need nearly 60,000 additional housing units by 2050 to meet projected demand, driven largely by an aging population, according to a new AARP Hawaiʻi report based on 2024 U.S. Census data.

T“It’s not just about kūpuna needing affordable housing. When a lack of affordable housing forces young working families to leave Hawaiʻi, the impacts are felt across generations,” Keali‘i Lopez, state director of AARP Hawaiʻi, said in a statement. “The question becomes not only where our children and grandchildren will live, but who will care for our aging parents and grandparents if families can no longer afford to stay.”

The share of Hawaiʻi residents 65 and older rose from 16% in 2016 to more than 21% in 2024. A University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Economic Research Organization study projected that 25% of the state’s population will be 65 or older by 2035.

An analysis by Econorthwest, a Portland, Oregon, consulting firm, said 29% of new housing statewide by 2035 will be needed for people ages 65 to 84. By 2050, it said, residents 85 and older will need 40% of new housing.

For residents 65 and older, just under one-third of new units will need to be affordable to those earning less than $63,900, or 60% of area median income, the report said. It also said meeting older residents’ needs will require “prioritizing homes that support aging in place and smaller households.”

Between 2014 and 2024, Hawaiʻi added 43,000 housing units, an 8% increase. Over the same period, the number of households grew 9.5%.

About two-thirds of the additional 60,000 units will be needed by 2035, the report said.

The report said Hawaiʻi had the nation’s third-lowest retention rate for residents ages 20 to 30, behind Alaska and Wyoming.

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