Roughly 30.9% of borrowers who traded in a vehicle for a new one in the first quarter of 2026 owed more on their old loan than the trade-in was worth, according to Edmunds data. The average shortfall was $7,183, the second-highest on record and up 42% from the same period in 2021.
Borrowers with negative equity financed an average of $55,970 for a new vehicle last quarter, about $12,000 more than the typical new-vehicle buyer, according to Edmunds reporting compiled by Dealership Guy News. Their average monthly payment reached a record $932.
The trend followed sharp price increases during the pandemic, when chip shortages and shipping disruptions reduced new-car supply. The average new vehicle cost about $41,000 in April 2021, The Wall Street Journal reported. By March 2026, it had risen to $51,456, the 12th straight month above $50,000, according to Kelley Blue Book data reported by CNBC.
The strain is also appearing in payment data. Auto loan defaults rose to an annualized 3.79% in March, the highest level since early 2010, according to Cox Automotive. A 2024 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau study found borrowers who rolled negative equity into a new loan were more than twice as likely to lose that vehicle to repossession within two years.
Dealers said the issue reflected pandemic-era pricing.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said affordability had become a central issue for the industry. Speaking in Detroit in January, he said, “The sedan market is very vibrant,” CNBC reported. Fortune reported Ford was targeting a $30,000 to $35,000 price range without subsidies, while General Motors and Stellantis were considering similar moves in lower-priced segments.
CNBC reported it now took 36.3 weeks of median household income to buy the average new vehicle, up from 33.7 weeks before the pandemic.