Public concern about data centers has increasingly focused on electricity costs. A YouGov poll last year found that, among 1,000 Americans, more than two-thirds expected power prices to rise if a data center were built in their area. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs projected that AI infrastructure buildout would raise electricity costs by 6% between 2026 and 2027, and by another 3% by 2028.
A recent working paper from the Electric Power Research Institute offered a more mixed picture. Using data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and retail revenue data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration from 2015 to 2024, researchers found that data center operations were associated with lower retail electricity prices through at least 2024.
The study found a causal relationship between data center demand and electricity prices: For every doubling of data center capacity, average retail electricity prices fell by 3.5%. At the state level, the decline was about 6%.
Researcher and co-author Asa Watten said much of that relationship reflected economies of scale.
“Electricity markets are different than a lot of markets that they interact with,” Watten told Fortune.
Unlike commodities such as soybeans or gasoline, electricity prices are tied to cost recovery, or how much power is consumed. As fixed costs are spread across more customers and more kilowatt-hours, prices can fall. Higher data center demand can also bring more generators online, some of which are more energy efficient.
The paper said that pattern may not continue. PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, said in a report this week that a $6.3 billion increase in consumer electricity costs over the next three years could be mostly attributed to rising data center power demand.
The increase in data center construction, expected to reach $7 trillion in spending by 2030, has already been correlated with higher power costs. In Virginia, which has more data centers than any other state, residential electricity prices rose by more than 13% in the last year, according to Energy Information Administration data.